(Gonzaga’s game-plan begins to fall apart at UFC 80; photo courtesy of UFC.com.)
How far the mighty fall: Once the UFC’s #1 heavyweight contender, Gabriel Gonzaga will reportedly be facing Team Punishment journeyman Justin McCully in his next bout, at UFC 86 (July 5th, Las Vegas). McCully will be looking for his second win in the Octagon, after defeating Antoni Hardonk by decision at UFC Fight Night 9 in April 2007; he hasn’t competed since then. The match is particularly important for Gonzaga, who’s been on a two-fight skid since knocking out Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 70. Not only did Gonzaga lose big matches to Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum, he didn’t look impressive in either bout, leading some fans to question his heart. Fighting McCully is Napao’s last chance to redeem himself; if he doesn’t have a successful showing, you can bet he’ll be a victim of the UFC’s ongoing roster cuts.
In other UFC news…
— Due to a busted ankle, Alessio Sakara has been forced to withdraw from The Ultimate Fighter 7 finale (June 21st, Las Vegas). Replacing Sakara in his middleweight bout against Rob Yundt is Rob Kimmons, a 20-3 veteran of an alphabet soup of regional leagues who will be making his UFC debut.
— Yes, you heard that right. Karo Parisyan is the “gatekeeper” of the UFC’s welterweight division, according to Dana White. Ouch, buddy!
— The UFC just sent a cease-and-desist letter to Tito Ortiz for wearing the UFC’s championship belt on the cover of his new autobiography, This Is Gonna Hurt. The belt is “intellectual property of the UFC…as such, its use in promotional materials requires the company’s approval per the terms of its standard contract.” Now who’s the bitch?
According to MMAjunkie.com, a heavyweight clash between Gabriel Gonzaga and Justin McCully has been added to the card for UFC 86 on July 5 in Las Vegas.
McCully, a member of Tito Ortiz’s Team Punishment, has not fought since his successful debut at UFC Fight 9 in April of 2007. During that fight, McCully, who was [...]
On a night (or afternoon) where many fans complained of a lack of “exciting” match ups for UFC 80, we were graced with several exciting finishes.
In fact, out of the nine fights on the card only two ended in decision. There were SIX knockouts/technical knockout and one thrilling, blood-soaked submission.
Former welterweight champion BJ Penn solidified his place in history with a dominant win over Joe Stevenson in the main event to earn the vacant lightweight title, becoming just the second person ever to hold a belt in two different divisions (Randy Couture is the other).
It’s an achievement he has been chasing since a loss to then 155-pound champion, Jens Pulver, in 2002 and a disappointing draw with Caol Uno in 2003.
Last night it’s safe to say Penn looked better than he has ever looked in his career. Clearly, he needs to be mentioned with George St. Pierre, Anderson Silva and Rampage Jackson as the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.
There is a lot in store for Penn in the future. First and foremost, however, we now know that he will defend his belt against former champion Sean Sherk most likely in May.
That match up should be exciting and filled with animosity, especially if the scene inside the Octagon immediately following the championship fight is any indication.
Fireworks.
Looking even farther ahead if Penn beats Sherk then he might be on a b-line for a rematch with St. Pierre. He wants that fight bad. With a win he’d also be the first man to hold two belts in two separate UFC weight classes at the same time.
Clearly, the 170-pound division is stacked. But UFC president Dana White is a shrewd businessman and he knows a big score when he sees one.
Of course, if Penn defeats Sherk he can then fight Kenny Florian (if he can beat Joe Lauzon on April 19). However, if Lauzon wins it’s doubtful that Penn would take on his young student.
St. Pierre vs. Penn II would be one for the ages and I am one of the fans who believe Penn deserved the decision victory in their first encounter.
I for one think this fight NEEDS to happen if all the cards can fall into place.
For now we’ll just all enjoy the ride. “The Prodigy” is at the top of his game and he has declared that Sherk is a “dead man.”
That’s a showdown that can’t come soon enough.
The rest of UFC 80 was extremely interesting and exciting.
In the co feature of the evening Fabricio Werdum weathered the early storm of vicious leg kicks by Gabriel Gonzaga to knockout “Napao” in round two. Gonzaga looked great in the first round, but once again his conditioning was his downfall as he came out in the second stanza looking sloppy and gassed.
Werdum capitalized and put on a much more exciting fight than his previous scrap with Andrei Arlovski to earn some respect in the heavyweight division. Werdum now needs to be considered a top five heavyweight.
Gonzaga needs to re-evaluate his career so that we don’t begin to think he is the man who got lucky with a head kick against Mirko Cro Cop and thats it. I wouldnt mind seeing Gonzaga and Cro Cop tangle again. It’s a rematch that could sell tickets and be extremely interesting.
The rest of the main card action was quick and fast.
Jorge Rivera took his career off life support with a devastating knockout of up-and-comer Kendall Grove. It’s good to see a guy like Rivera get a victory to save his career. How can you not respect a man who is fighting to support his family and not to become a millionaire?
Grove, on the other hand, seems to have let his head become way too big. This latest result is back-to-back devastating losses for Grove. And you have to wonder if he’s training hard enough or if he’s trying to live the superstar life before he’s a superstar.
Usually I wouldnt question a fighters desire, but seeing Grove’s undeniable talent in his three straight victories over Ed Herman, Chris Price and Alan Belcher makes you wonder where his hunger and drive went. The talent is still there, yet hes been knocked out in two straight versus fighters with less talent but more heart.
Hopefully, this will be a wake up call for Grove and his career because he has the talent to be a top caliber fighter in his division.
Wilson Gouveia threw a left hook out of nowhere for a stunning victory over Jason Lambert.
Before the blow Lambert dominated the entire fight from start to finish and had Gouveia on his heels. But he got sloppy and took one on the chin.
This is real tough tough loss for Lambert and an escape for Gouveia. I wouldn’t mind seeing these two fight again.
Marcus Davis showed he should be considered a top five 170-pound fighter. With his dominant knockout over Jess Liaudin, Davis now needs to be mentioned with the big boys after a string of impressive victories.
I for one wouldn’t mind seeing him tangle with Jon Fitch.
Alessio Sakara picked up a much-needed and solid victory over a well respected James Lee. Sakara was being dominated with the ground game; however, he found a way to unload a barrage of right hands and he took the win.
Sakara now should have his career back on track and some momentum heading into his middleweight debut in his next contest. With a few convincing victories there he could work his way towards the top the talent shallow division.
Paul Kelly and Paul Taylor put on a Liddell/Silva-type exchange to start off the fight and set the tone for what was a great fight.
Taylor was sharp on his feet and won the stand up exchanges, but Kelly was also game and never backed down. In the end Kelly’s dominance on the ground proved to be the difference.
Both these fighters should see some more days in the UFC and deservedly so they put on a great fight.
Antoni Hardonk made quick work of Colin Robinson with a vicious leg kick and cross that put Robinson to the ground.
Hardonk was finally able to show his stand up skills that made him a feared heavyweight. However, if he cant develop something that resembles a ground game he will end up being nothing more than a gatekeeper for the heavyweight division.
Sam Stout won a lackluster decision over Per Eklund. And although his standup still looked crisp as usual you have to wonder if Stout will also ever be more than a gatekeeper who’s capable on putting on a great standup show when the match up is right.
All in all it was a great night for MMA.
Tonight’s fights cleared up some of the muddy waters in the heavyweight and welterweight divisions with Werdum and Davis’ wins.
In addition, Penn cemented his legacy as one of the greatest fighters of all time, but I think this is just the beginning of the peak of his career great things are still to come.
Take note Sean Sherk. You’re a dead man!
For detailed UFC 80: “Rapid Fire” results hit up or blow-by-blow commentary post right here.
Yeah, yeah, I know the UFC fighters need sponsorship money, but seriously, doesn’t the “Condom Depot” ads pasted across the ass of the fighters a bit shady? I think it takes away from the legitimacy of the sport. Personally, I wouldn’t want to words “Condom Depot” written on my ass, but I guess it depends on how much cash they were offering.
If you’re going to leave comments and discuss the fights with all the other MMAmania.com readers be sure to do it on the main UFC 80 results post and not this one.
Spoiler Alert: UFC 80 will also air via tape delay at 10 p.m. ET. Therefore, don’t click through to see the results if you don’t want to see them!
The field of 18 fighters for UFC 80: “Rapid Fire” all tipped the scales earlier today at the Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle, England, for the pay-per-view (PPV) event that is set to go off tomorrow afternoon at 3 p.m. ET.
155 lbs.: BJ Penn (154) vs. Joe Stevenson (154) Hvywt.: Gabriel Gonzaga (255) vs. Fabricio Werdum (247) 170 lbs.: Marcus Davis (169) vs. Jess Liaudin (170) 205 lbs.: Jason Lambert (204) vs. Wilson Gouveia (205) 185 lbs.: Kendall Grove (186) vs. Jorge Rivera (185) Hvywt.: Antoni Hardonk (244) vs. Colin Robinson (238) 170 lbs.: Paul Taylor (170) vs. Paul Kelly (170) 205 lbs.: Alessio Sakara (206) vs. James Lee (206) 155 lbs.: Sam Stout (155) vs. Per Eklund (155)
*Note: Fighters are allowed to be over the division weight limit by one pound in non-title fights.
There check out the video highlight package of the UFC 80 weigh-in click here.
Reminder: The televised portion of the pay-per-view (PPV) event begins Saturday, January 19, at 3 p.m. ET. We will provide LIVE blow-by-blow, round-by-round coverage of the main card action at this time.
UFC 80 quick results, however, will begin to flow earlier than that here at MMAmania.com at about 1:30 p.m. ET with the prelim fights.
Remember that the PPV will also air via tape delay at 10 p.m. ET. Therefore, please be aware that if you plan to watch the recorded version that there will be spoilers located on this site. We’ll do our best to hide them, of course, but just please keep that in mind.
UFC 80: “Rapid Fire” is set for tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon on January 19 from the Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle, England. The pay-per-view (PPV) event airs LIVE at 3 p.m. ET and via tape delay at 10 p.m. ET.
To get us pumped for the festivities MMAmania.com contributor Jesse Holland and site veteran “PhilQNY” went toe-to-toe below to try and predict the fighters who will leave the Octagon with their hands raised tomorrow during the featured fights of the day.
It’s important to note for the predictions that while someone may be lauding a certain fighter, he isn’t necessarily the guy who he thinks is going to win. Basically, we never want this to come out sounding repetitive. At the end of each analysis, therefore, you will see the individual picks.
Let’s get to it:
Wilson Gouveia (9-4) vs. Jason Lambert (23-6)
Jesse Holland: Jason Lambert is 9-1 in his last 10 fights and is fresh off an upset victory over Renato “Babalu” Sobral at UFC 68. Aside from riding that momentum, Lambert needs to do two key things to win this fight: He must avoid the leg kicks of Gouveia and keep the fight standing. Lambert has decent submission skills but I think Gouveia is a little too wily to be fooling around with on the mat. Lambert is a better striker than most people give him credit for and continues to improve. Knowing that three of Gouveia’s four losses are by (T)KO, I’m sure “The Punisher” is refining his striking and hopefully improving his cardio. Lambert also has the edge in experience with more than double the fights of Gouveia. Stay off the mat and this one is all Lambert.
MMAmania.com reader “PhilQNY:” This fight was supposed to go down UFC 76, but Wilson had to withdraw because of a broken nose. Now it’s finally time will bang it out — don’t be surprised if both fighters have some cage rust from time spent away from fighting. Wilson is another version of Babalu with heavy hands and some nasty leg kicks. Wilson has five submissions and three knockouts to his credit. He is also a member of the American Top Team, which is a well rounded and respected camp. Wilson does not want to fight off his back with Punisher`s top game — a vicious ground and pound attack. Wilson will look to stay standing and not force the fight to the ground. Both will bring something different into the Octagon. Jason is a game fighter and will try to come out aggressive with striking to set up his takedowns to straight up ground and pound. Wilson will maintain his distance and touch him up with his hands, as well as soften him up with some leg kicks. And if Jason gets the takedown he is still in the danger zone with Wilson`s Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills. If Jason thinks his fight with Wilson will be like his fight with Babalu, he is in for a bad night. I expect to see highly aggressive up tempo first round maybe a second round if needed.
Final predictions:
Jesse Holland — Lambert via technical knockout
PhilQNY — Gouveia via technical knockout
Jorge Rivera (14- 6) vs. Kendall Grove (8-4-1)
Jesse Holland: Jorge Rivera has been around the block long enough to know how to prepare for a fighter like Kendall Grove. “Da Spyder” is coming off a huge loss to Patrick Cote at UFC 74 and for a young and inexperienced fighter that kind of loss can still linger. Rivera would be wise to put the pressure on early and often. If Rivera can make Grove fear the knockout, he can control the fight and possibly end it early. If Grove does show up, like the fighter we saw dismantle Alan Belcher, then Rivera needs to swing for the fences. Jorge does not do well against accurate strikers as indicated in his losses to guys like Rich Franklin, Anderson Silva and Chris Leben, but can weather the storm if he fights intelligently like he did against David Loiseau. The deciding factor will be which fighter has learned the most from their last loss.
MMAmania.com reader “PhilQNY:” Kendall Grove is 6′ 6″, athletic and boasts a crazy reach. He also has good Muay Thai skills and brings some nasty elbows to the fight. This will be size and quickness against experience and power. Kendall got knocked out by Patrick Cote in his last outing in the UFC. He will have a fight plan that will not keep him in the pocket trading blows with Jorge. He will use his reach to stay on the outside, punch to set up a takedown where his long lengthy frame puts Jorge in numerous danger zones. Both fighters are coming off losses and want to move back in the right direction toward the title in another ultimate fighter inter-class reunion. Jorge by all means wants to stand and strike while Kendall will strike till he sees an opening to takes this fight to the deck.
Final predictions:
Jesse Holland — Grove via technical knockout
PhilQNY — Grove via submission
Jess Liaudin (12-8) vs. Marcus Davis (13-3)
Jesse Holland: Jess Liaudin is probably a much better fighter than his 12-8 record suggests. He was hot out of the gate winning his first five fights before losing his way and going 2-8. Since then he’s won five straight and hasn’t been defeated since 2005. He’s got great submissions but has also shown knockout power in three of his last five fights. Marcus Davis has transformed himself into a tremendous fighter but “Joker” can use that momentum against him with a well-timed submission. Davis has a tendency to get over-anxious and that mistake could be all Liaudin needs. Liaudin does not want this to turn into a stand-up war where he has a distinct disadvantage against the boxing background of Davis. Patience is what Liaudin needs as well as the ability to endure some punishment.
MMAmania.com reader “PhilQNY:” I smell Fight of the Night written all over this one. Both fighters are coming into UFC 80 on fire. Jess “Joker” Liaudin — with three knockouts and eight submissions to his credit — is riding a five-fight win streak (2-0 UFC). Against Davis, he would be better off taking this fight to the ground against. The “Irish Hand Grenade,” on the other hand, is on a 10-fight win streak (7-0 UFC) of his own. The former pro boxer is looking to screw up the Joker`s game plan if he wants to stand and bang with him. Even though Jess is fighting out of London, Marcus is no stranger in England. He has fought twice before in Europe in 2007. In fact, the Brit`s probably remember his last fight with Paul Taylor during which Marcus was on the brink of losing after Paul connected with a head kick from hell`s kitchen with a fight- ending type flurry (thanks Yves Lavigne for not stopping it). Marcus composed himself and broke Paul down into his guard flipped the script to tapout Paul with a nice back mount arm bar transition. This will be an exciting, high-paced and explosive bout with crazy strikes, and entertaining ground work. Overall, this should be one hell of fight to watch.
Final predictions:
Jesse Holland — Davis via technical knockout
PhilQNY — Davis via technical knockout
Gabriel Gonzaga (9-2) vs. Fabricio Werdum (9-3)
Jesse Holland: Gabriel Gonzaga will tell you he’s not the same fighter that lost to Fabricio Werdum back at Jungle Fight in 2003 but I’m not sure I believe him. Gonzaga is a hulking menace that does best when he’s pouring it on but like we saw against Couture and originally Werdum, can get easily overwhelmed. Werdum is no slouch himself having never been knocked out or submitted in thirteen fights. He knows how to stay out of submissions and can avoid the big strikes. While his snoozer against Arlovski was nothing to write home about, he’s gone toe-to-toe against some of the sport’s best including Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Sergei Kharitonov. More importantly, he’s already faced Gonzaga — and won. Look for history to repeat itself on Saturday.
MMAmania.com reader “PhilQNY:” Gabriel Gonzaga is heavy-handed, has sick ground and pound, crazy leg kicks and world class jiu jitsu. He blew up on the MMA scene in 2007 with a Cro Cop-type kick that knocked out, well, Cro Cop himself. The win earned a title shot against Randy Couture, which turned out to be tough loss via technical knockout. That loss and experience in the title match will pay off big time against Werdum because he now knows what it takes to be a UFC champion. He faced Fabricio five years ago and lost via strikes (at the time Gonzaga was 2-0 and Werdum 3-0). Today that fight will not give Fabricio an edge coming into the rematch at UFC 80. Both have evolved, but Gonzaga has caught the attention of mainstream MMA America and Werdum has not done so yet. Both are coming off loses (Fabricio`s being a very boring UFC debut fight against Andrei Arlovski) and need to win this fight to get back on track. Werdum, before moving to Curitiba to train with ChuteBoxe, was training with Cro Cop. Therefore, he should know how to properly defend Gonzaga`s leg kicks. Gonzaga is looking for the knockout, but Werdum has never been submitted or knocked out in his career. With the storyline, history and what this fight means to them, it should be a recipe for a good fight. The flip side is if this turns into a NAGA fight and their Brazilian jiu-jitsu cancels each other out, which is a very good possibility.
Final predictions:
Jesse Holland — Werdum via technical knockout
PhilQNY — Gonzaga via unanimous decision
BJ Penn (12-4-1) vs. Joe Stevenson (28-7)
Jesse Holland: It’s hard to believe that Joe Stevenson has 35 fights or that he’s 18-2 since 2001. But that’s a testament to the kind of fighter “Daddy” is. He may be an underdog, but he certainly can’t be overlooked. Since moving to lightweight he’s never looked better and his strength and conditioning will give BJ plenty of problems. It’s not unheard of for Penn to lose or go to a decision and if his conditioning is not 100 percent he could end up in a similar situation like Penn/Hughes II. Stevenson will have to be absolutely perfect to win it and keep his sub defense at the forefront of his strategy. BJ is not the best at stuffing the takedowns so Joe can easily rack up points. Takedown, a little ground and pound, rinse and repeat. I don’t have any money on this one so you heard it here first — Stevenson with the upset.
MMAmania.com reader “PhilQNY:” BJ “The Prodigy” Penn will step into the Octagon in the best shape ever to claim his lightweight UFC title once and for all at UFC 80. He failed twice before, and Penn has gained MMA knowledge throughout the years that will slingshot him further into the ranks of the MMA legends. BJ has for many years not focused in dieting, training and cardio when preparing to fight, relying just on talent alone. The question is, which BJ Penn will show up? The out of shape BJ or the BJ who can go all five rounds going for submissions non stop? “The Prodigy” has grown up in the world of MMA and I believe this is his time. He should and will not underestimate his opponent, Joe Stevenson. Joe is a the season two winner of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) at 170 pounds. He owns a strong ass guillotine and masterful leglocks. Joe will try to attack BJ`s weakness: Cardio and takedown defense. Now if Joe gets BJ down to the mat he has to be 100 percent accurate with no mistakes, avoiding BJ`s flexibility and All-World jiu jitsu skill. This is the biggest fight of his MMA career, on the biggest stage that for the UFC lightweight title. The question I have on Joe is: Will he crack under the pressure? Penn fighting Stevenson is the reason this will be a great fight that no one should miss out on watching. Penn is cut from a different cloth and is one of the best pound-per-pound fighters in the world. Come time for UFC 80 and BJ will be in predator mode as he stalks down Joe. He will end up putting and locking Joe in a dead zone that will either set up a technical knockout or submission. BJ will then be one of only two men to hold UFC belts in two different weight classes as of Saturday January 19, 2008.
Final predictions:
Jesse Holland — Stevenson via technical knockout
PhilQNY — Penn via technical knockout
That’s a wrap, folks. For the complete UFC 80: “Rapid Fire” fight card click here. Remember to come check us out this weekend for the latest results, recaps and thoughts on the first major UFC event of 2008.
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for UFC 80.
Desert Dog here with tips and “Smart Bets” for UFC 80: “Rapid Fire” this Saturday, January 19, at the Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle, England.
BJ Penn and Joe Stevenson are set to battle it out once and for all for the vacant lightweight title in the main event of the evening. In addition, Gabriel Gonzaga and Fabricio Werdum will clash to determine who has a leg up in the heavyweight division contender race.
UFC 80 isn’t getting that much love from the fans. But that doesn’t mean money-hungry bettors shouldn’t take a few chances on this card.
In fact, the lower profile events are often the ones that turn out the best in terms of payouts — especially when the line up is loaded with heavy favorites in the sportsbooks.
Let’s get to it.
Here are the “Smart Bets” for UFC 80: (Note: + = Underdog; - = Favorite)
Main card picks:
BJ Penn -280 (Bet $100 to win $37.71)
Gabriel Gonzaga -225 (Bet $100 to win $41.66)
Marcus Davis -260 (Bet $100 to win $41.66)
Jorge Rivera +275 (Bet $100 to win $275)
Wilson Gouveia -145 (Bet $100 to win $68.96)
Under Card:
Sam Stout -315 (No action)
Antoni Hardonk -340 (No action)
Paul Taylor -220 (No action)
James Lee +140 (Bet $100 to win $140)
Parlays:
Penn, Davis and Gonzaga +141 (Bet $100 to win $141)
NOTE: MMAmania.com recommends BetUS.com to place wagers (FREE $75 play with a deposit of $200 — you actually make money). However, Bodog.com is also a good place to bet and compare odds.)
As always, if you are going to bet only play with what you are willing to lose.
Most fights on this card are featuring heavy favorites, which is hard to argue against. However, the betting lines on all of the fights look right on except for two:
Jorge Rivera and James Lee.
Rivera is running as the underdog because of inactivity and not being a name that sells. Lee, on the other hand, comes in as an underdog because he is not well known. Out of these two underdogs Lee has the best chance of winning and is my straight pick in this match up.
In a matter of full disclosure, I have to mention that my Gouveia pick is partly an emotional call. Honestly, I despise “sausage tits” Lambert and always bet against him. Therefore, don’t let any of my personal views sway you.
The other top three fights should go right down the line and actually make a very nice parlay option with Penn (-280), Gonzaga (-260) and Davis (-350) providing decent parlay odds (+141).
Main card bouts:
Joe Stevenson (+240) vs. BJ Penn (-280)
This should be a great fight but not a huge betting opportunity … unless you believe Stevenson is going to catch BJ in one of those trademark guillotines.
Not to take too much away from “Daddy,” but he has yet to face a top 10 lightweight, his signature move is a guillotine and his stand up is one step above Matt Hughes.
In Joe’s last fight with Kurt Pellegrino it was easy to see the holes in his game. Pellegrino opened up the fight picking Stevenson apart from the outside as he continually moved straight forward. Next, Pellegrino took Stevenson down repeatedly to control the first half of the fight.
Of course during that first half Stevenson attempted six guillotines.
In the second half, Pellegrino seemed to gas and Stevenson was able to turn the tide and apply some nice ground and pound. However, even with Pellegrino gassed Stevenson was unable to get close to finishing the fight. Furthermore, on several occasions he left himself wide open for some sloppy sub attempts by Pellegrino.
Make no mistake … every fight is new. But Stevenson has been very predictable in all of his past UFC fights and there’s no reason to think that he’s going to change everything that got him this far.
BJ holds the advantage in all aspects of this match up except strength. Typically when two fighters with good ground skills are matched up we’ll look to their stand up as a possible decider. Ignoring the standup for now, “The Prodigy” is very dangerous from any position if the fight hits the ground. Stevenson’s predictability will really lead into Penn’s chances to counter and put Joe into some very bad situations.
Now for the stand up.
With BJ’s reach advantage and surprisingly heavy hands, Joe could take some serious damage while trying to figure out how to get “Gumby” Penn on his back. Penn’s ground and pound is very good, too. And even though he prefers to use it to soften opponents up for submissions, he can pour it on for a finish as well. BJ’s record and the faces of many of his opponents are testament enough to his striking abilities.
The best chance Stevenson has for a win is a decision gained by getting Penn down and controlling him for the last three rounds. Of course there’s always the 2 percent chance of being the first fighter to ever knock BJ out. A bet at -280 on Penn win net you a profit of 37.71 percent. It’s not that exciting but it’s better than investing in the stock market.
Prediction: Penn via submission (of the night)
Gabriel Gonzaga -225 vs. Fabricio Werdum +250
It’s always interesting to see rematches when almost every variable has changed.
More than four years ago these two met in Jungle Fight 1. The fight took place in a ring, outside (in very high heat and humidity) and Gonzaga was 20 pounds lighter than Werdum.
During the first meeting both fighters put on a good transition clinic for about a round and a half. After that it was a fight of attrition. These guys were toast … soggy toast.
The rematch should look nothing like that.
With four years of experience, Cro Cop’s head on a platter and a shot at the title under his belt, Gonzaga has gained a lot of respect and his odds are showing it. Gonzaga has shown some serious gains in striking ability and power. And if it does stay on the feet for more than one round Werdum is done.
Of course, we must remember that Gonzaga is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and these two will put on a clinic if the fight hits the ground.
As for Werdum, his last outing against Andrei Arlovski really didn’t help his image. Fabricio’s greatest strength is his submission game, but he too often relies on others taking him down to get the fight where he wants it. His wrestling is surprisingly weak and if his opponent wants to keep a fight standing it’s not too hard to do.
Gonzaga’s current betting odds are -225. I would prefer a bet at -200 and this might happen with pre-fight hype and the reminder that Werdum won the first time around. I’ll give it until Friday and if the odds don’t improve I’ll take the bet at -225.
Prediction: Gonzaga via technical knockout
Marcus Davis -320 vs. Jess Liaudin +285
Jess Liaudin has been training with Pancrase folks in England and Dan Henderson’s Team Quest in Temecula, Calif. Jess has a very well rounded game with a strong base founded in karate and kickboxing.
His explosiveness and aggressive style have put him on a six-fight win streak. He’s also used some interesting techniques to finish his fights, including some heel hooks and a spinning back fist.
His biggest weakness in this match up will be strength and he will also have a slight disadvantage in striking. Liaudin definitely has the skill set and power to finish any fight, I just think he’s going to have a very hard time controlling Davis in any position.
Davis — who trains with the Team Jorge Gurgel — is often thought of a dangerous striker … especially after seeing his knockout of Jason Tan.
Ironically, six of his last 10 wins were via submission. And no they weren’t all rear naked chokes set up by ground and pound. Everyone who saw his last fight with Paul Taylor where he got nailed with a head kick, looked to be done, and then quickly transitioned into a beautiful arm bar saw the ground skills Davis has worked so hard on.
I believe Marcus’ strength will be the deciding factor in this fight. He should be able to use it to gain the advantage wherever the fight goes.
Although both fighters like a fast pace, Jess seems to be more interested in the quick technical knockout finish and he may run the risk of gassing early. Davis is a machine and he’s willing to grind for three rounds — a trait that goes a long way in tough fights.
The only thing I don’t like about this fight is the odds.
Marcus has all of the name recognition with bettors, which has translated into some inflated odds. I would prefer a bet in the -250 range, but I’m still putting my bet in on Friday no matter where the odds are. Davis is one of my favorite fighters in this division and should showcase his abilities well this Saturday.
Prediction: Davis via technical knockout
Wilson Gouveia -145 vs. Jason Lambert +155
Gouveia is yet another excellent American Top Team fighter whose been cruising quietly below the radar. He owns the distinction of being only one of two people to beat Jon Fitch — a large feather in anyone’s cap.
Stylewise, he’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with very heavy hands and vicious kicks. Some might look at this match up and say the last BJJ specialist (Babalu Sobral) didn’t do too well with Lambert and your right. But Wilson’s style and ability on his feet is much better than Sobral’s. His one UFC loss to Keith Jardine showed his ability to take some serious punishment as well as dish it out.
Jason “Sausage Tits” Lambert .. .ah, what can I say. The guy just bugs the shit out of me, so I guess take what I say with a grain of salt. With only one fight in 2007, Lambert wants to get back in the cage and try to make his move toward a contender spot.
That huge knockout over Sobral should have put him much closer to the front of the line, but apparently he bugs the shit out of UFC matchmaker, Joe Silva, as well.
Lambert’s squat frame holds a lot of power and is the base of his ground and pound game. It’s also his downfall when he’s faced with a skilled striker. Jason is going to look to close the distance and put Gouveia in the sausage grinder.
The odds are actually spot on — this really is a tough fight with Wilson having the overall advantage but Jason can finish any fight he’s in. For Wilson it’s just a matter of not making any mistakes and being patient. It’s an easy pick for me and the price works, too.
Gouveia will likely catch Lambert with a head kick while he’s moving inside. I’ll finish my beer and smile.
Prediction: Gouveia via technical knockout
Kendall Grove -325 vs. Jorge Rivera +275
It’s another The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) alumni scrap with both fighters sharing similar skill sets.
Kendall is a little stronger on the ground and Rivera is a little stronger in the stand up. Both fighters have just come off losses and have each lost to Patrick Cote.
Kendall fell out of his gameplan with Cote and got knocked out for it. He faces a similar threat in Rivera. Not to mention Jorge also boasts a very solid ground game.
Kendall’s gameplan should focus on using his reach in the standup and those great knees when it moves to the clinch. Kendall’s best shot at finishing this fight is probably with a submission, although in in seven years of MMA Rivera has only been submitted twice.
Rivera is a talented Muay Thai fighter with wins over Travis Lutter, David Loiseau and Dennis Hallman. Nine of Rivera’s 14 wins have come by knockout or technical knockout. Obviously, he will want to keep this fight standing and his take down defense is good enough to let him do that for most of the fight. When the fight goes to the mat, Rivera will have two jobs, avoid the chokes and get back to his feet as quick as possible.
Rivera has the advantage in experience, strength and striking in this fight, while Kendall’s advantage is in the ground game and overall aggression. Although I really like Kendall and believe he has a lot of potential, this is a very tough fight. The odds, however, are the result of popularity and not ability. This should be a -110/+125 fight with Kendall being a slight favorite, but with Rivera being a nearly 3 to 1 underdog I have to bet on his side.
Prediction: Rivera via decision
Under Card:
Sam Stout -315 vs. Per Eklund +260
Sam’s elite level striking, iron chin and aggression should carry him pretty easily through this fight. Eklund has a decent record, but most of his recent wins have come by way of decision. He’s got home court advantage but it’s a very tough introduction to the UFC. In terms of betting the odds aren’t too enticing for another chalk bet so I’ll let this one go.
Prediction: Stout via technical knockout
Antoni Hardonk -340 vs. Colin Robinson +280
Hardonk’s a very skilled kickboxer with some wicked kicks. His ground game is definitely his weakest area especially in terms of wrestling skills.
Watching Justin McCully lay on him against the fence for three rounds was the most painful thing I’ve seen in a long time. On the flip side, Colin is a solid boxer with very heavy hands but his gas tank and overall skill set are holding him back.
Hardonk has all the tools and power to win this fight. I’m also avoiding a bet here because of fairly heavy odds.
Prediction: Hardonk via decision
Paul Kelly +180 vs. Paul Taylor -220
Taylor looked very good against Crocota, relentlessly pushing the pace and finally finishing with the technical knockout in the third round. He also looked great against Marcus Davis in his last fight … right up until he lost.
In short, Taylor is a very well rounded fighter and needs another solid win to secure more fights in the UFC.
Paul Kelly is unbeaten in his six professional fights, but beyond his record I don’t know much about him. I like Taylor as the favorite in this fight, but without any knowledge of his opponent, I can’t make any bet recommendations.
Prediction: Taylor via technical knockout
Alessio Sakara -150 vs. James Lee +140
In this one we have Alessio Sakara — the highly touted striker who has lost three of his last five fights via technical knockout or submission. Alessio has also stated this is his last fight at 205 lbs. and will be moving to middleweight next.
That’s not the picture of a confident fighter going in for a great battle.
This is the first UFC fight for James Lee but his overall record of 11-2 is full of impressive submission victories primarily in the King of the Cage (KOTC) promotion. Lee has never gone to decision, never been TKO’d, and has not lost since 2003.
This just looks like a very bad match up for Sakara and a great betting opportunity for us. These are the quiet little match ups I love to find. This is definitely a step up in competition for Lee but he has all the skills to win this fight.
Prediction: Lee via submission
That about does it for this installment of betting tips and advice for “Rapid Fire.” Remember to bet smart. Betting is not for everyone. But if you want to take a stab at it head over to BetUs.com (Get a FREE $75 play with a deposit of $200 or more) or to compare competitive MMA lines visit Bodog.com. Enjoy the fights and good luck. Feel free to leave UFC 80 predictions and other thoughts in the comments section below.
UFC 80: “Rapid Fire” is set to go off LIVE one week from tomorrow on Saturday, January 19 from the Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle, England, at 3 p.m. ET. In addition, the pay-per-view (PPV) broadcast will be available via tape delay at 10 p.m. ET.
MMAmania.com will provide LIVE up-to-the-minute quick results below, and round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the PPV telecast at 3 p.m. Therefore, if you plan to watch the tape delayed portion please be aware that we will have potential spoilers posted for the results.
This first UFC event of the New Year features the fight between BJ Penn and Joe Stevenson for the vacant lightweight championship. In addition, top heavyweights Gabriel Gonzaga and Fabricio Werdum are slated for a rematch during the co feature of the evening (afternoon here in the United States.)
Here’s how the complete card rounds out:
Main Event:
BJ Penn (11-4-1) vs. Joe Stevenson (28-7) for the interim UFC Lightweight Championship
Main card (televised):
Hvywt.: Gabriel Gonzaga (8-2) vs. Fabricio Werdum (9-3-1)
170 lbs.: Marcus Davis (13-3) vs. Jess Liaudin (12-8)
205 lbs.: Jason Lambert (23-6) vs. Wilson Gouveia (9-4)
185 lbs.: Kendall Grove (8-4) vs. Jorge Rivera (14-6)
Under card (may not be broadcast):
Hvywt.: Antoni Hardonk (5-4) vs. Colin Robinson (8-3)
170 lbs.: Paul Taylor (8-2-1) vs. Paul Kelly (6-0)
205 lbs.: Alessio Sakara (11-6) vs. James Lee (12-2)
155 lbs.: Sam Stout (12-3-1) vs. Per Eklund (12-2-1)
It seems like a lot of fans are sleeping on UFC 80. In fact, Steve Seivert over at Brawl Sports recently noted:
“Where’s the buzz for UFC 80?… While Penn is a major star fighting in a title bout for the vacant lightweight crown, there just doesn’t seem to be that much interest stateside in UFC 80 … the message boards aren’t lighting up like they do with other UFC events and the anticipation just doesn’t appear to be there this time out.”
Indeed, something does seem to be missing. It’s not going to affect the performance of Penn, however, who shared his thoughts on the possible historic implications of the main event via the Orange County Register.
Here’s a snip from “The Prodigy:”
“If I win this fight, I become the guy who has two titles in two divisions. I’m thinking about this fight all the time. This is so important to me. I don’t want anything else…. I feel like I’m at 170 pounds still. I’m leaner. I’m fast. I’m quick. It just depends on what kind of shape I get in, no matter what weight I’m at. When I’m in shape, I can jump higher, I can run faster and I can punch harder.”
Penn in top physical and mental form going up against a very experienced opponent in Stevenson for a second world title. If that’s not worth tuning in to see then there is indeed something very wrong.
Regardless, remember to hit up MMAmania.com whether or not you plan to watch the fights (especially if you don’t). Many of our readers check-in before, during and after the PPV telecast to share their thoughts on the action.
Therefore, feel free to leave a comment or 10 before you leave and chat with many of our readers during the show — it always turns out to be a great discussion.
In addition, keep in mind that we will also be the spot for the latest news, recaps and post-fight analysis after UFC 80.
Feel free to leave UFC 80 thoughts and predictions in the comments section below prior to fight night.
UFC 80: “Rapid Fire” is set for tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon on January 19 from the Metro Radio Arena in Newcastle, England. The pay-per-view (PPV) event airs LIVE at 3 p.m. ET and via tape delay at 10 p.m. ET.