(What, no odds on whether Gina will make weight?)
If betting odds are any indication of how competitive MMA bouts will turn out to be, expect a lot of one-sided blowouts on Elite XC’s CBS offering this Saturday night. Not that it’s any surprise, really. In fact, with five fights crammed into a two-hour time slot CBS is going to need some quick beatdowns if they don’t want to run way over and have to cut into precious local news time. In any event, Best Fight Odds supplies the most gambler-friendly betting lines for ‘Elite XC: Heat,’ and they break down like this:
Kimbo Slice (-325) vs. Ken Shamrock (+329)
Jake Shields (-550) vs. Paul Daley (+524)
Gina Carano (-550) vs. Kelly Kobald (+525)
Ninja Rua (-196) vs. Benji Radach (+210)
Andrei Arlovski (-428) vs. Roy Nelson (+385)
Some thoughts…
‘I Can’t Believe It’s So Close!’: the line on Radach-Rua seems at first like it’s worth taking a chance on “Razor”, but then there’s that stuff about him not training until five weeks ago. That ought to be enough to scare you away from a bet on Radach. If it’s really true that he had ballooned up to 230 pounds after suffering through more injuries and not hitting the gym, it’s surprising that the line isn’t more lopsided in Rua’s favor. Radach hasn’t fought in over nine months. Five weeks isn’t going to erase that kind of ring rust.
Best Place for That Money You Don’t Want Anymore: So you’re looking at these odds and you can’t help but wonder if that +525 on Kelly Kobald isn’t your key to beating this whole economic crisis thing. You’re saying to yourself, ‘Gina Carano can’t even make weight, plus she’s got all these media obligations. She’s totally overrated and I’m the only one who sees it!’ All right, wise guy. Go ahead and put a bet on Kobald. Then when she gets in the cage and you see why she’s 0-2 in her last two fights maybe you’ll remember that this is Elite XC, where only two fighters matter: Gina and Kimbo. And neither of them gets a fight that isn’t served up on a silver platter.
Underdog Most Likely to Turn a Profit: Of the underdogs on this card, Radach still has the best chance of actually winning, but the long shot you might actually make serious money on is Roy Nelson. Now, I know some in the Potato Nation think this is a walk-through for Arlovski, but it’s not. If Nelson plays to his strengths (submission grappling) and avoids Andrei’s (knocking suckas out), he could pull off the upset. It’s still far from being likely, but that’s why they call it gambling, you wuss. If you need another reason to believe in a “Big Country” win, how about the fact that Affliction is admittedly banking on this as an opportunity to “showcase Arlovski.” If the screwy MMA world has taught us anything, it’s that saying something like that before a fight is the best way to make sure it doesn’t happen.
Written by admin on October 1st, 2008 with comments disabled.
Read more articles on betting and CBS and odds and gambling and Roy Nelson and Ninja Rua and Kelly Kobald and Affliction and Elite XC and Andrei Arlovski and Ken Shamrock and Kimbo Slice and Gina Carano and Benji Radach and fight and Features and MMA.
(That’s not the face of a man you want to bet against, is it?)
You can learn a lot about life by gambling on sporting events over the internet. Mostly what you learn is that oddsmakers and bookies are smarter than you 90% of the time. The key is knowing that you know less than the oddsmakers and bookies and working around it (I think Socrates said that). Another thing you can learn is that some people actually bet on preseason football. Seriously. You might as well bury your life savings in the backyard and hope it grows into a money tree. At least that way you know where it is.
Fortunately for the off-shore gambling economy, UFC 87 is a stacked and somewhat unpredictable card, so the temptation to try and win some cash is almost irresistible. Our odds today come from Betus.com, and as always you should read Damon Durante’s MMA Betting for ‘Tards if you still don’t know how odds work.
Georges St. Pierre (-350) vs. Jon Fitch (+250)
It’s not exactly shocking to see GSP as the favorite, but the way people have been jumping on the Fitch bandwagon of late, claiming that he presents all kinds of new problems for the champ, I’m surprised the line isn’t a little closer. But there’s a reason it’s not. GSP is an incredible athlete who seems to be at the height of his powers, both mentally and physically. Fitch’s greatest strength is his wrestling, and you aren’t going to outwrestle GSP. Ask Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes. You certainly aren’t going to finish him that way, and five rounds worth of trying for takedowns is going to leave you vulnerable to catching knee-in-the-face disease, which is known to be fatal to your title hopes.
A guy with Fitch’s natural ability always has a shot, but not one I’d want to bet on. If you do though, that’s cool. Maybe poverty will be good for you.
Brock Lesnar (-260) vs. Heath Herring (+200)
With as little as we know about Lesnar’s abilities as an MMA fighter and as inconsistent as Herring has been, this one should really be closer to a pick’em. The line has probably moved in favor of Lesnar at least in part because fans know him better and are more willing to throw down a bet on a familiar name. As we’ve seen before, that is not a reliable strategy.
This is so unpredictable you should tread very carefully, but Herring is certainly worth some small action at 2-1 odds. He’s the veteran in this situation and he is, according to Dana White, newly dedicated to his career as a fighter. That’s enough for me, but I’m a reckless son of a bitch.
Kenny Florian (-145) vs. Roger Huerta (+115)
Florian is my pick to win, but this one ought to be a close. The chances of it going to decision are, in a word, good. And when that happens who knows what the judges will say, especially if one of them is Sensei Cecil Peoples. What I’m saying here is that Florian should get the slight edge, which is what you see reflected in the odds.
It’s still worth it to me, though, because Florian’s head is in the right place and he has the kind of skills to finish the fight, whereas Huerta’s chances of doing the same aren’t nearly so strong. I wouldn’t pawn your wedding ring to make the bet or anything, but the blender? Yeah, pawn that sucker. You gave up on those protein shakes months ago.
Manny Gamburyan (-340) vs. Rob Emerson (+240)
What the hell. Does someone want to explain to me why, on such a loaded pay-per-view, Manny Gamburyan and Rob Emerson is a televised bout? This is an Ultimate Fight Night bout if ever there was one. Was there some kind of scheduling error? Did they decide to fill this spot by throwing darts at their roster of lightweights? Anyway, if you want a lock that you will most definitely not profit from, take Gamburyan over Emerson. You’re welcome.
Demian Maia (-300) vs. Jason MacDonald (+220)
Maia should win this. He really, really should. But something about “The Athlete”. He’s been winning fights he wasn’t supposed to (some of them, anyway) since he came into the UFC. I don’t think this will be one of them, but then I didn’t think he’d beat Ed Herman, either, so there you go.
You know something? I say you go for it. I say you bet the house on MacDonald. You need something like that to get you out of this rut. What do you need a house for, anyway? Remember Kane from “Kung Fu”? He didn’t have a house and he seemed happy. Come on. Do it. You pussy.
Written by admin on August 7th, 2008 with comments disabled.
Read more articles on Features and Brock Lesnar and General and odds and UFC 87 and betting and Georges St. Pierre and Kenny Florian and Roger Huerta and UFC and Jon Fitch and Dana White and Heath Herring and MMA.
MMA Betting Blog has the odds for Saturday’s UFC 82, and breaks down a few of the match-ups here. Their current numbers for the main card (favorites followed by underdogs) are:
Anderson Silva (-150) vs. Dan Henderson (+120)
Cheick Kongo (-175) vs. Heath Herring (+145)
Chris Leben (-165) vs. Alessio Sakara (+135)
Yushin Okami (-220) vs. Evan Tanner (+170)
Jon Fitch (-550) vs. Chris Wilson (+350)
I’ve flip-flopped on my prediction for the main event, which is one of the most evenly matched and toughest-to-call in UFC history. At first, I bought into the oft-repeated line of “Silva’s never faced as good of a wrestler as Henderson.” Which is absolutely true, but now I don’t think that will be the deciding factor in the fight. For me, it comes down to this: Which will each man’s strategy be, and how likely is the success of that strategy?
(more…)
Written by admin on February 28th, 2008 with comments disabled.
Read more articles on Preview and odds and UFC 82 and Dan Henderson and UFC and Anderson Silva and MMA.